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Is East Africa ready for its own 'Euro?' - CNN.com
Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi are targeting 2012 for adopting a common currency.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- The East African Community is planning to adopt a single currency in 2012
- It hopes the integration will boost regional trade and attract foreign investors
- Some economists are skeptical saying the 2012 target is not yet feasible
(CNN) -- Just as the eurozone is being threatened by faltering economies, East Africa is moving closer to its own monetary union. But some are asking if it's ready for a common currency, and in light of Europe's troubles, if it should even have one.
Under an ambitious plan, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi are targeting 2012 for adopting a common currency.
Having already established a customs union in 2005 and a common market in 2010, the five member-states of the East African Community (EAC) hope that the economic integration will boost regional trade, decrease exchange-rate volatility, and attract foreign investors.
Dr Richard Sezibera, the recently-appointed Secretary General of the EAC, says: "The financial, fiscal and monetary integration is good for our region.
"It will help our region improve its competitiveness, deal with volatility that has been a problem in our region, lead to an easing of business -- including easier capital flows from within the region -- and make the financial integration much easier.
This is beneficial both to business but also to the average East African.
--Dr Richard Sezibera, Secretary General, EAC
--Dr Richard Sezibera, Secretary General, EAC
"This is beneficial both to business but also to the average East African."
The promise of a better financial outlook in an integrated market of more than 130 million people has not gone unnoticed by the world's strongest economies.
Earlier this week, China became the latest state to appoint a representative to the EAC secretariat, following the example of countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom and France.
However, some analysts remain skeptical about the timing of the common currency plan as well as its viability. They question the feasibility of the 2012 target, warning that the implementation of a monetary union is a challenging and convoluted process.
"There are a number of prerequisites that need to be met in order for a single currency to be fully adopted," says Phumelele Mbiyo, Standard Bank's Senior Africa Strategist for Global Market Research.
Mbiyo stresses the need for "a fair amount of macroeconomic convergence" between the EAC member countries, especially with regard to inflation rates and fiscal deficit.
"My concern is that, especially when it comes to monetary policy conducts, I don't think that there is necessarily a fair amount of correspondence in what happens between all those countries," he adds.
Drawing parallels with the economic woes experienced currently within the eurozone, Mbiyo argues that "it is not a clear-cut case that a single currency or a monetary union is necessarily a good thing."
He predicts that if the EAC member-states moved toward enforcing a single currency, they could face many of the problems the eurozone has been experiencing in recent months.
"I think one needs to be a bit more circumspect in evaluating the possibility of potential benefits of a monetary union," he says.
Mbiyo goes on to add that the 2012 date is not an achievable target and calls for a harmonization of policies and regulation across the region.
"There has to be a fairly long period of a trial macroeconomic policy coordination before a monetary union is adopted," he says. "So I wouldn't say that within the next three years that would be feasible."
We are very far off from having what it takes to have a monetary union.
--Jaindi Kisero, economics editor, Nation Media Group
--Jaindi Kisero, economics editor, Nation Media Group
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Mbiyo's view is shared by Jaindi Kisero, the economics editor of Nation Media Group, a major news organization across East Africa, who describes the 2012 target as "totally unrealistic."
"These guys are trying to jump the gun," says Kisero, who points out the striking dissimilarities among the economies in the region, citing differences in capital control, interest rates and financial markets flow.
"We are very far off from having what it takes to have a monetary union," he adds.
Some analysts warn that deeper integration within the EAC is hindered by existing limitations in terms of the movement of capital and labor, despite the introduction of a common market.
"Although import duties on intra-EAC trade have been eliminated, numerous and extensive non-tariff barriers remain, impeding trade among members," says Martine Guerguil, the head of the IMF's African division.
Guerguil calls for the introduction of policy reforms in order for the EAC common market to become fully effective.
"Forceful efforts to remove these barriers are required for the common market to become a reality," she says.
While Sezibera says 2012 remains the target for a single currency, he acknowledges that there are still many obstacles the EAC needs to overcome -- notably the harmonization of economies and regulatory practices.
"But most importantly there is a need to mobilize the political will from all the actors to move forward the agenda," he says.
He adds: "There is a need to improve all sectors of society, from the decision makers, parliamentarians, business communities and others to support the agenda and therefore generate political momentum for deeper integration."
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Monday, May 9, 2011
Eritrean president slams the separation of Sudan into two states
May 9--KHARTOUM -- The Eritrean president Isaias Afewerki criticized the split of Sudan into two states saying that it was a result of "political blunders".
In an interview with the pro-government Al-Shorooq TV, Afewerki said that Eritrea worked for Sudan's unity over the last twenty years emphasizing that breaking up its territory into blocks may cast a shadow on the fate of the state which has seen a quantum leap in the areas of
Afewerki added that separation of the south was the inevitable result of political blunders and international intervention that affected the region. He urged Sudanese people to preserve the unity of the remaining land.
Southern Sudanese voted in January to separate from the north and form a new nation, a referendum promised to them as part of a 2005 peace deal which ended the decades of civil war.
But many countries in the region have expressed unhappiness with the breakup of Sudan saying that it could set a precedent in the continent and trigger regional instability.
Afewerki also warned against the "internationalization" of the Darfur crisis stressing that it will only complicate the situation. He pointed out that the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) signed in Abuja five years ago came through U.S. and international support but did not solve the problem and "failed miserably".
"Are the Sudanese people unable to resolve the crisis themselves?" he said . "I do not see the need for internationalization because it could lead the region ultimately to the same fate of South Sudan."
The insurgency in Darfur by African rebels hasPublish Post
commanded unprecedented international attention and sparked a humanitarian emergency which claimed 300,000 lives and drove more than 2 million people from their homes according to UN estimates.
The Qatar-hosted peace talks have been delayed by rebel divisions and continued military operations on the ground.
Sunday, May 8, 2011
Friday, May 6, 2011
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Detained British nationals possessed arms: Eritrea | Top News | Reuters
By Aaron Maasho
ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) - Four British nationals detained in Eritrea late last year possessed large amounts of arms, Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki said late on Friday.
British media reports said four ex-Royal Marines were arrested by an Eritrean naval vessel after a gunbattle on December 24 as they guarded a merchant ship from pirates in the Indian Ocean.
The London-based newspaper The Sun reported last month the four were seized by Eritrea's navy. Another two had escaped by boat, the paper added.
"They possessed countless amounts of arms, including sniper rifles. If you come to my house with a gun, don't I have the right to defend myself?" Isaias said in an interview with the state-run Eri TV.
The Eritrean leader did not say whether the group would be charged or whether their embassy would be granted consular access to them.
British authorities say Asmara has not given any information on the group's whereabouts. Foreign Minister Henry Bellingham warned earlier this month Britain was ready to take 'robust action' if Eritrea remained silent.
Bellingham said consular access to check on the men's welfare should have been granted within 48 hours under the Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations, signed by both Britain and Eritrea.
"They should ask what they were doing in our territory. They are citing the ... convention when our laws were violated," Isaias said.
Eritrea is one of the world's most secretive nations and has frosty relations with a number of western countries as well as most of its neighbours, having been involved in border disputes with Ethiopia and Djibouti.
Britain has in the past called for "punishment" of Asmara for its alleged support of Islamist insurgents in Somalia. The United Nations imposed
The East African: - News |In East Africa, a silent drama is unfolding and no one is paying attention
In East Africa, a silent drama is unfolding and no one is paying attention
Kenya is the highest spender in the region on its military. File Photo Kenya is the highest spender in the region on its military. File Photo
By Charles Onyango-Obbo
Posted Monday, May 2 2011 at 00:00
Posted Monday, May 2 2011 at 00:00
In many parts of Africa today, everything is going boom! But even as the street protests play out, in the wider East Africa a power and arms race is unfolding largely out of sight.
Just as Tunisia and Egypt seemed to be beginning to calm down, Libya erupted in an uprising that turned messy and has now become a bloody civil war.
In Ivory Coast, the usurper president Laurent Gbagbo, who refused to hand over power to his rival Alassane Ouattara, stubbornly clang to power. Fed up, Ouattarra, the UN and the French called out the dogs and bombed the presidential residential where Gbagbo was hiding.
Next door, Burkina Faso’s Blaise Compaore had to run for the hills for a few days, after his soldiers mutinied over unpaid salaries.
Then it came to East Africa – but not all in the way observers expected. In Kenya, protests at the high cost of living were quickly deflated when the government quickly made two sharp cuts in duty on diesel and kerosene. In Uganda, the opposition decided to “Walk to Work” to protest high fuel prices, and were met by bullets and teargas.
Part of Ugandans’ anger arises from the fact that while they suffer, the Museveni government seems to have lost its senses as far as taxpayers’ money goes. His election campaign is thought to have cost a record $700 million, not too far off from the estimated $1 billion that US President Barack Obama spent in his 2008 presidential bid.
As the rumblings in Uganda gathered steam, it emerged that the government was spending $740 million on sophisticated fighter jets, and planning to lavish $1.3 million on the upcoming swearing-in ceremony of the president.
Yet, dramatic as all these events were, and destined to transform East African politics, the stories that could truly shake up the region went largely unnoticed.
First, in Uganda, state media reported that the $740 million jets were meant to “protect the oilfields” that are expected to be sending oil to the market in three or so years. People sneered briefly, and forgot about it.
Then, on April 21, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Hailemariam Desalegn said, “We have embarked on regime change in Eritrea. This regime change is not by invading Eritrea, but by supporting the Eritrean people and groups, which want to dismantle the regime.”
It is remarkable that his statements didn’t make the slightest ripple.
However, at least the news agencies bothered. Two days earlier, in the Tanzanian capital Dar es Salaam, there was an event that was totally ignored by international and most East African media. It was the communiqué by the East Africa Community leaders from Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda following their summit.
Inside it, East Africa’s chiefs had buried dynamite. Item 16 in the communiqué said, in part, “The summit supports the African Union and Igad (the Intergovernmental Authority on Development) on a one-year extension for the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia to enable the government to draft a new Constitution and intensify its war against the al Shabaab terrorist insurgency.”
It then continued, in item 18, “The summit expressed support for the African Union and Igad positions backing the request that the Transitional Government extend its tenure for one year before elections in order to allow for the maintenance of security and stabilisation.”
There is nothing unusual there, until one realises that the AU (at least publicly) has not yet made a decision about the end of the transition in Somalia.
The Igad position has been more public. It decided to support the extension of the Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP), not the Government (TFG).
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