Among the protest banners in Cairo’s Tahrir Square was a hand-drawn map of the Arab Spring with black target symbols covering each country hit by anti-government uprisings. But the bull’s-eyes could easily be replaced with question marks as the groundswell for change has dwindled into scattered and indecisive conflicts. An update of some other countries:
YEMEN: President Ali Abdullah Saleh left the country after a blast wounded him, yet his regime fights on despite relentless protests. On Friday, at least 10 Yemenis were killed in fighting between government forces and tribesmen. His son, Ahmed, has kept the regime’s crucial Republican Guard forces intact.
SYRIA: A core of loyal security forces keep the regime of President Bashar al Assad in control through ongoing violence. On Friday, Syrian authorities fired on protesters, killing at least 17 people and wounding more than 100, activists said. Even if the regime falls, the underpinnings such as the rank-and-file military and public works staff cannot be purged without sending the country into a tailspin, and ousting his minority Alawite power base could spark civil war.
LIBYA: Moammar Gadhafi could face a moment of truth as rebels press closer to the capital Tripoli and NATO warplanes hammer military sites, yet in spite of their increasingly-recognized transitional governing body, the anti-Gadhafi militias have no clear unity to prevent possible power grabs for the country’s oil riches if he is ousted.
TUNISIA: The country where the Arab Spring began has been shaken by unrest — including a rise in ultraconservative Islamists — ahead of planned elections in October to elect an assembly that will write a new constitution. Some political groups are urging further delays in the election to give new parties a chance to organize.
BAHRAIN: Only here have authorities managed to clearly tip the scales in their favour. Security forces — aided by Saudi-led reinforcements — smothered an uprising by the kingdom’s majority Shiites seeking greater rights from the Sunni rulers. Amid repression, a so-called “national dialogue” began this month, but it’s unlikely that the 200-year-old ruling dynasty will give up any significant hold on power. They may also use a heavy hand to keep Shiite-led protests from reigniting.
JORDAN: King Abdullah II has set in motion plans for an elected government in coming years, and so far headed off an uprising.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Officials have opened the vaults to fund development programs in poorer regions outside Dubai and Abu Dhabi and plan to expand voting rights in September’s balloting for a federal advisory council.
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